Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C5 0xc5fa…0ec8 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$323 (+5%) realized +$198 · open +$125
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate77%33W / 10L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$110
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$216
world 37% +$72
politics 7% +$28
economics 3% +$3
sports 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +4.7% -5.3% 83% 39% -2.9%
≤30d 24 +6.5% -3.7% 83% 42% -2.5%
≤90d 29 +3.3% -6.6% 79% 38% -2.6%
all 43 -3.0% -12.3% 77% 35% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 35% -4.4%
10% -20.7% 12% -13.5%
15% -28.3% 5% -21.9%
20% -35.4% 2% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$2,380
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$125
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses33 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)43 / 63
History coverage450d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,570 $1,672 +$103 (+7%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 98¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 76¢ 84¢ $104 $114 +$10 (+10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 89¢ 88¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 76¢ 86¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+17%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 84¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 71¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $222 +$15 +7%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Jun 22 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $113 +$13 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $97 +$21 +21%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $234 +$24 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $129 +$22 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$9 +20%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $250 +$13 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 14 $105 +$25 +24%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $42 +$3 +6%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 05 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 13 $54 +$10 +18%
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31? Mar 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $30 −$29 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 21 $100 +$8 +8%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $45 −$45 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $30 +$3 +10%
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? Jan 17 $12 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 17 $50 +$18 +35%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 17 $500 +$26 +5%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 17 $1,000 +$64 +6%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 02 $93 +$52 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 82¢ $19 1h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? SELL Yes 77¢ $96 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $111 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 99¢ $126 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $10 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $30 16h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $10 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $10 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $10 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $10 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $10 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $50 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $12 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $10 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $97 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 92¢ $8 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $10 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $10 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $9 20h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 35h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 35h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,379.68 · official $2,379.68 (match) · 297 history records