Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5f9…9026 sports 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%21W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$4
other 29% −$8
politics 20% −$3
economics 7% $0
crypto 7% −$2
culture 3% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 40 -0.4% -9.9% 2% 0% -9.8%
all 182 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses21 / 161
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage169d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $22 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $49 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $52 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $43 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 25 $94 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $46 8d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $17 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 36d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $49 36d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 80d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 81d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $43 81d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $43 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $41 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $41 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $45 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $45 81d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $39 81d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $39 82d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $47 82d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $48 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 82d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $43 82d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $43 82d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $39 82d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $39 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.00 · official $48.00 (match) · 666 history records