Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5f7…3fd0 other 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,193 (-7%) realized −$2,185 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate54%80W / 69L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$657
14 days−$1,471
30 days−$1,630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,227
sports 29% −$906
world 5% −$75
economics 3% +$126
tech 2% +$155
finance 2% −$174
politics 2% +$36
crypto 2% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -36.6% -42.7% 32% 24% -15.0%
≤30d 41 -40.6% -46.2% 32% 24% -21.9%
≤90d 47 -39.7% -45.5% 34% 23% -23.7%
all 149 -9.3% -17.9% 54% 30% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 30% -15.8%
10% -25.8% 17% -23.9%
15% -32.9% 13% -31.2%
20% -39.5% 8% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$62 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$2,185
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses80 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)149 / 152
History coverage233d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$8 +16%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 +$13 +62%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $30 −$26 -84%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$6 -55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $161 −$16 -10%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 −$12 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $252 +$53 +21%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $111 +$55 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$7 -32%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $502 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1,071 −$10 -1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$5 -48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $251 +$31 +12%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $41 +$3 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$15 -76%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1,201 +$38 +3%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,451 −$141 -10%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $51 −$41 -81%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $51 −$22 -44%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$16 -76%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,404 +$133 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,518 +$163 +11%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$8 -39%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $112 −$56 -50%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $703 +$110 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $776 −$771 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$15 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $176 −$175 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 20 $3 −$2 -86%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO1) Apr 20 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 20 $6 +$4 +71%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Apr 20 $166 +$6 +4%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $216 +$21 +10%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jan 19 $20 +$1 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jan 19 $60 +$53 +88%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 19 $40 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $228 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 39h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $20 39h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 77¢ $145 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $135 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $143 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $111 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $502 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.41 · official $132.41 (match) · 498 history records