Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C5 0xc5f7…2aac sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$26 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$101
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$41
world 5% +$19
other 3% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +3.4% -6.5% 75% 75% -8.6%
≤90d 14 +33.7% +20.9% 79% 64% -11.6%
all 19 +19.7% +8.3% 79% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 47% -12.6%
10% -2.0% 37% -20.9%
15% -11.5% 26% -28.6%
20% -20.2% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$68 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage178d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Iraq 66¢ 64¢ $96 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $118 +$54 +46%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $108 +$47 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $134 −$133 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $155 +$37 +24%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $96 −$95 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 14 $67 +$37 +55%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? May 14 $3 +$17 +488%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $53 +$15 +29%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 09 $44 +$9 +20%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 09 $41 +$20 +48%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $31 −$31 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $24 $0 +1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January? Feb 04 $12 $0 +0%
Clavicular in jail by January 31? Feb 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jan 06 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.40 · official $93.40 (match) · 35 history records