Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc5f6…95ea crypto 877 markets active 3h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%544W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$24
14 days+$0
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$22
crypto 35% −$35
other 16% −$20
weather 3% −$23
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -13.0% -21.3% 56% 56% -17.7%
≤30d 468 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 62% -5.9%
≤90d 873 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 60% -12.0%
all 873 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 60% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 60% -12.0%
10% -18.6% 52% -20.4%
15% -26.4% 39% -28.1%
20% -33.7% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses544 / 329
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)873 / 877
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 873 Trades
no open positions (301 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 +$3 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 40¢ $10 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $5 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 27h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 41¢ $5 27h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $5 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $5 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 23¢ $5 37h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $0 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 1474 history records