Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5f5…5d54 weather 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,577 (+59%) realized +$3,697 · open −$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$674per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$488
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 50% +1.5%
≤30d 6 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 50% +1.5%
≤90d 6 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 50% +1.5%
all 6 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 50% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 50% +1.5%
10% -10.0% 0% -8.2%
15% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -17.0%
20% -26.7% 0% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$17 · ×9.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.47 per $1 lost it wins $18.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$3,697
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$674
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $239 $220 −$19 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $106 $5 −$100 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 30? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? Jun 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 30? Jun 28 $487 +$107 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 30? Jun 28 $1,164 +$35 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 30? Jun 28 $967 −$35 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $1,496 +$316 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 30? Jun 28 $853 +$185 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 8m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 8m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 10m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? SELL Yes 32¢ $114 27m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? SELL Yes 39¢ $60 32m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY Yes 33¢ $450 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $168 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.96 · official $224.96 (match) · 88 history records