Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5f5…e714 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$643per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$391
14 days−$196
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +180.2% +153.5% 33% 11% -18.3%
≤30d 24 +56.7% +41.8% 38% 21% -11.3%
≤90d 24 +56.7% +41.8% 38% 21% -11.3%
all 24 +56.7% +41.8% 38% 21% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.8% 21% -11.3%
10% +28.2% 12% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here +15.8% 8% -27.6%
20% +4.5% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,100) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late +137% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$135 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,229
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage18d
Avg bet$643
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1,156 $1,153 −$3 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $62 $76 +$15 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $102 +$45 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1,177 −$253 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $478 −$122 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,105 +$78 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $808 −$68 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $85 −$84 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $635 +$25 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $401 −$32 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $34 +$46 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $455 −$439 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,592 +$563 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,525 −$150 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,944 +$676 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $478 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $587 −$303 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $971 −$63 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $37 −$18 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,100 −$11 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $461 +$93 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $727 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $248 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $202 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $33 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $19 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $59 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $8 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $11 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $100 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $62 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $924 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $109 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,229.47 · official $1,229.47 (match) · 397 history records