Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5f3…1fc1 sports 1217 markets active 4d ago coverage 129d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,460 (-7%) realized −$1,460 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%633W / 583L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$76
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$410
crypto 21% −$80
other 21% −$795
weather 3% −$178
world 0% +$3
culture 0% −$8
tech 0% −$13
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +24.8% +12.9% 22% 22% -35.8%
≤30d 115 -30.7% -37.3% 16% 16% -44.9%
≤90d 323 -23.7% -31.0% 30% 27% -27.1%
all 1216 -11.3% -19.8% 52% 43% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 43% -15.8%
10% -27.4% 34% -23.9%
15% -34.5% 23% -31.2%
20% -40.9% 16% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses633 / 583
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1216 / 1217
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1216 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +130%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$9 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 1 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 +$8 +7177%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$7 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$5 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$6 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +494%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records