Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:47:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5f1…c7ff sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,372 (+11%) realized +$1,372 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%43W / 23L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$380
7 days+$674
14 days+$114
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$501
other 15% +$762
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +173.7% +147.7% 86% 79% +43.9%
≤30d 49 +50.2% +35.9% 69% 67% -1.4%
≤90d 66 +38.4% +25.2% 65% 64% -0.7%
all 66 +38.4% +25.2% 65% 64% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.2% 64% -0.7%
10% +13.2% 61% -10.2%
15% +2.3% 52% -18.9%
20% -7.7% 42% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$150 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses43 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage36d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$58 +114%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $5 +$86 +1666%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 +$5 +10%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $37 +$43 +119%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $304 +$183 +60%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 +$31 +152%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $146 +$45 +31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$33 +325%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $146 +$83 +57%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $146 +$64 +44%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $147 +$67 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $20 +$21 +101%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $20 +$5 +27%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$14 +67%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $22 +$7 +34%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $116 −$114 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $349 −$347 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $304 +$114 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $231 +$78 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $242 −$240 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $312 +$204 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $142 −$141 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $277 −$274 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $116 +$88 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $11 +$5 +50%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $142 −$141 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $34 +$19 +55%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $100 +$73 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $24 +$17 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $135 +$99 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $34 +$14 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $28 +$24 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $58 −$58 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $70 −$70 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $190 +$58 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $176 +$124 +70%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $169 +$129 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $230 +$182 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $176 +$118 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $171 −$169 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $176 +$92 +52%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $158 +$94 +60%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $789 +$157 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $91 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 90¢ $54 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $487 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $37 20h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 21h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $146 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY $10 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $146 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $146 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $214 5d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $147 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $40 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $26 9d
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Fritz 74¢ $22 9d
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 59¢ $20 9d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $20 9d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 49¢ $20 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records