Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5ee…b0c2 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$12 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$7
tech 46% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +12.9% +2.1% 100% 67% -0.7%
≤30d 3 +12.9% +2.1% 100% 67% -0.7%
≤90d 3 +12.9% +2.1% 100% 67% -0.7%
all 3 +12.9% +2.1% 100% 67% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 67% -0.7%
10% -7.7% 0% -10.2%
15% -16.6% 0% -18.9%
20% -24.8% 0% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 91¢ 83¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $60 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $49 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.11 · official $55.70 (match) · 8 history records