Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc5ed…9374 weather 587 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,648 (-9%) realized −$8,933 · open −$4,715
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate54%260W / 219L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$8,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$5,243
crypto 17% +$163
tech 15% +$289
world 9% −$352
sports 6% −$1,538
politics 4% −$321
finance 3% +$124
weather 2% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +14.0% +3.2% 57% 36% -11.0%
≤30d 230 -18.1% -25.9% 61% 13% -11.3%
≤90d 442 -21.9% -29.3% 52% 9% -11.6%
all 479 -18.5% -26.3% 54% 11% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 11% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 8% -19.8%
15% -39.8% 8% -27.5%
20% -45.7% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$8,189
Realized−$8,933
Unrealized−$4,715
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses260 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions178
Markets (closed)479 / 587
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 178 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1,584 $1,584 −$0 (-0%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $720 $1,346 +$626 (+87%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 50¢ 90¢ $400 $724 +$324 (+81%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $1,620 $622 −$998 (-62%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $1,739 $582 −$1,157 (-67%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $1,298 $570 −$729 (-56%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $300 $567 +$267 (+89%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $789 $312 −$478 (-60%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $720 $94 −$626 (-87%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+60%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $400 $76 −$324 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $69 $50 −$18 (-27%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $59 $48 −$11 (-19%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 98¢ 95¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $300 $33 −$267 (-89%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $173 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$5 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +181%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$30 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $125 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $105 −$54 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,401 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,188.75 · official $8,188.77 (match) · 3500 history records