Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc5ea…42e8 sports 1381 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$779 (-2%) realized −$629 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%773W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days−$399
14 days−$871
30 days−$592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,033
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 +0.3% -9.3% 63% 58% -13.0%
≤30d 478 +3.5% -6.4% 64% 60% -12.0%
≤90d 1214 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 56% -12.2%
all 1347 +1.2% -8.4% 57% 55% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 55% -12.1%
10% -17.2% 45% -20.5%
15% -25.2% 34% -28.2%
20% -32.5% 26% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$1,827
Realized−$629
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses773 / 574
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1347 / 1381
History coverage124d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 1347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ 88¢ $117 $115 −$2 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Yibing Wu 71¢ 74¢ $107 $112 +$5 (+5%)
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Manuel Mazza 79¢ 78¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ 74¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Kimmer Coppejans 55¢ 46¢ $125 $104 −$20 (-16%)
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 85¢ 78¢ $102 $94 −$8 (-8%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Katie Volynets 55¢ 46¢ $104 $86 −$18 (-17%)
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Antonia Ruzic 34¢ 34¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Arthur Fery 55¢ 57¢ $76 $80 +$4 (+5%)
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Mackenzie McDonald 61¢ 64¢ $69 $73 +$4 (+6%)
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Henri Squire 54¢ 62¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+14%)
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jazmin Ortenzi 70¢ 72¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+4%)
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Katarina Kuzmova 53¢ 52¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jesper de Jong 48¢ 50¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Katie Boulter 75¢ 50¢ $81 $55 −$27 (-33%)
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jacopo Vasami 70¢ 76¢ $46 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 57¢ 58¢ $47 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 67¢ 66¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Gonzalo Bueno 70¢ 76¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+9%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Ben Shelton 63¢ 68¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+9%)
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Philip Henning 69¢ 68¢ $41 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 87¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Clement Tabur 51¢ 42¢ $48 $39 −$9 (-19%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 65¢ 72¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+10%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 35¢ 34¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 2 Winner: Bu vs Virtanen Jun 15 $24 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $87 +$35 +40%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $102 +$42 +42%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $83 +$20 +24%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $70 +$63 +90%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $123 +$59 +48%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $52 +$28 +55%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $99 +$30 +31%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $108 +$30 +28%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 14 $108 −$4 -3%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $47 −$10 -22%
Set 2 Winner: Sonego vs Basilashvili Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $58 +$78 +134%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $83 −$34 -41%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $127 +$96 +76%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 14 $89 +$35 +40%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $35 +$11 +32%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Yannik Kelm Jun 13 $37 +$20 +55%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $69 +$21 +31%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 13 $35 +$10 +27%
ITF Madrid: Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $44 +$80 +180%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 13 $51 +$13 +26%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Gabriella Price Jun 13 $35 +$6 +18%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Maria Florencia Urrutia Jun 13 $68 +$43 +63%
ITF Messina: Maxence Rivet vs Fausto Tabacco Jun 12 $59 +$9 +15%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $35 +$34 +97%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $34 +$54 +158%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $46 +$14 +31%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $37 +$7 +18%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Maria Garcia Cid vs Aran Teixido Garcia Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 12 $67 +$45 +67%
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Pia Lovric Jun 12 $85 +$28 +33%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $150 +$146 +97%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Jun 12 $268 +$180 +67%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair Jun 12 $48 +$6 +13%
ITF Zagreb: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Gina Marie Dittmann Jun 12 $52 +$7 +14%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ui Su Jeong Jun 12 $77 +$28 +36%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Stefano D'agostino vs Carlos Giraldi Jun 12 $60 +$12 +21%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $25 +$65 +262%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 69¢ $42 12m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $13 12m
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das BUY Aishi Das 89¢ $18 1h
Set 2 Winner: Bu vs Virtanen BUY Virtanen 51¢ $24 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 59¢ $2 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Manuel Mazza 79¢ $113 3h
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ $109 5h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele BUY Jurij Rodionov 75¢ $15 5h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 51¢ $48 5h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 71¢ $108 6h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $117 6h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 58¢ $17 7h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 61¢ $12 9h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 71¢ $5 10h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 61¢ $3 10h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 61¢ $49 10h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 57¢ $6 11h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 71¢ $7 12h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 34¢ $88 13h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 35¢ $13 16h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 35¢ $0 17h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Tristan Boyer 51¢ $49 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 53¢ $58 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian BUY Alina Korneeva 84¢ $31 17h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 70¢ $62 17h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 57¢ $48 17h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 87¢ $40 17h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $2 18h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $1 22h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 55¢ $105 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,827.09 · official $1,826.61 (match) · 3129 history records