Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5ea…83f5 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,536 (-15%) realized −$4,538 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$949per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4,936
30 days−$4,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,176
crypto 46% −$4,349
sports 2% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 43% -30.4%
≤90d 30 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 40% -22.7%
all 30 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 40% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 40% -22.7%
10% -26.5% 40% -30.1%
15% -33.6% 30% -36.8%
20% -40.1% 30% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$824) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$511 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,550
Realized−$4,538
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage35d
Avg bet$949
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1,448 $1,462 +$13 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $190 −$8 -4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $173 +$455 +262%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $191 −$186 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $190 −$186 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1,566 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $837 −$586 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $518 +$120 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1,235 +$847 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $937 +$286 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1,967 −$1,753 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $721 −$700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $824 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $414 +$372 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $725 −$700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $620 +$411 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $824 +$568 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $515 +$381 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$60 +29%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$6 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $824 −$65 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,137 −$592 -52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $6,234 −$399 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $5,953 −$116 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $29 15m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 44m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $16 58m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $215 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $356 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $0 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $409 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $311 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $38 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $9 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $62 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $182 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $173 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $190 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $191 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $190 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,550.04 · official $1,550.04 (match) · 253 history records