Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5e7…f2bd weather 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+44%) realized +$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% +$9
other 23% +$2
world 10% −$2
sports 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +30.6% +18.2% 47% 47% +29.0%
≤30d 15 +30.6% +18.2% 47% 47% +29.0%
≤90d 15 +30.6% +18.2% 47% 47% +29.0%
all 15 +30.6% +18.2% 47% 47% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.2% 47% +29.0%
10% +6.9% 40% +16.7%
15% -3.5% 33% +5.4%
20% -12.9% 27% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+122%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$6 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +128%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$3 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 3¢ $0 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 11¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.86 · official $3.86 (match) · 30 history records