Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5e5…ed1c crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,050 (+58%) realized +$2,098 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$1,199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,424
crypto 41% −$111
sports 13% +$362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.4% +0.8% 40% 40% +2.1%
≤30d 28 -25.8% -32.9% 25% 25% +41.9%
≤90d 38 +10.9% +0.3% 39% 39% +36.4%
all 43 +6.0% -4.1% 40% 40% +35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 40% +35.4%
10% -13.3% 37% +22.4%
15% -21.7% 35% +10.6%
20% -29.4% 33% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$26 · ×5.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,098
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage104d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $299 −$201 -67%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 +$337 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $994 +$1,082 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $11 +$39 +368%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $144 +$267 +186%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? May 13 $1,031 −$40 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 13 $21 +$34 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 13 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 13 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 13 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 13 $3 +$3 +100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$421 +411%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $72 +$143 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 04 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $52 −$47 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 04 $14 −$14 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$5 +51%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$5 +91%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $98 4m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $299 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $490 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $50 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $25 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $8 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $12 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $14 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $61 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $55 33h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $73 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,075 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $994 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $29 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $1.50 (match) · 93 history records