Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C5 0xc5df…63cf world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$9,926 (+48%) realized +$10,134 · open −$209

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$1,028per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$92est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2,229

7 days+$7,295

14 days+$7,279

30 days+$7,279

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-9.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-5.2%	-14.3%	50%	50%	+43.6%
≤30d	7	-18.8%	-26.5%	43%	43%	+43.4%
≤90d	7	-18.8%	-26.5%	43%	43%	+43.4%
all	18	-0.4%	-9.9%	50%	39%	+32.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.9%	39%	+32.8%
10%	-18.5%	39%	+20.1%
15%	-26.4%	33%	+8.5%
20%	-33.6%	33%	-2.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% too few recent

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,312) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +27% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,450 vs −$395 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$10,134

Unrealized−$209

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$92

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage132d

Avg bet$1,028

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Over	63¢	16¢	$18	$4	−$14 (-75%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$196	$1	−$195 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$298	−$280	-94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$3,879	+$2,510	+65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$1,084	+$1,095	+101%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?	Jun 18	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,541	−$1,504	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$5,651	+$5,484	+97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 14	$16	−$16	-99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	Mar 02	$1,809	−$298	-16%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main	Mar 01	$100	−$100	-100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	Mar 01	$100	−$100	-100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	Mar 01	$19	−$19	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Mar 01	$577	+$135	+23%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Feb 28	$1,228	−$1,228	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Feb 28	$1,312	+$18	+1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Feb 28	$1,006	+$3,199	+318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Feb 18	$9	+$10	+114%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	Feb 18	$700	+$538	+77%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	Feb 09	$999	+$65	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	63¢	$18	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$15	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$201	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$298	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$3,879	45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$1,084	2d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$9	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1,541	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	80¢	$16	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	50¢	$5,651	7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL Yes	16¢	$652	110d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY Yes	21¢	$859	111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL Yes	22¢	$859	111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY Yes	20¢	$200	111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY Yes	26¢	$750	111d
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main	BUY Moreno	45¢	$100	112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL No	3¢	$213	112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	3¢	$200	112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL No	10¢	$386	112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	8¢	$300	112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL No	11¢	$113	112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	8¢	$77	112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL No	26¢	$600	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY No	23¢	$232	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY No	26¢	$338	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	63¢	$338	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	73¢	$393	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL No	27¢	$393	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY No	22¢	$115	113d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.07 · official $5.07 (match) · 57 history records