Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc5df…be66 sports 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22,346 (+21%) realized +$22,375 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 45L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,137per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$1,112est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,714
7 days+$5,992
14 days+$1,132
30 days+$14,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$12,413
other 18% +$8,724
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +71.2% +54.9% 60% 40% +10.2%
≤30d 78 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 40% +5.1%
≤90d 92 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 46% +9.3%
all 92 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 46% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 46% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 41% -1.2%
15% -20.0% 39% -10.7%
20% -27.9% 34% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,724) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,035 vs −$611 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$3,774
Realized+$22,375
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,112
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage35d
Avg bet$1,137
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 65¢ 64¢ $3,803 $3,774 −$29 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $1,832 +$368 +20%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $258 +$10 +4%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 22 $263 −$263 -100%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 22 $1,590 −$1,577 -99%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 22 $844 −$844 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 22 $1,989 −$1,989 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,485 −$1,485 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $3,235 +$1,065 +33%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2,889 $0 -0%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $1,814 +$39 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8,177 +$322 +4%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1,748 +$2,552 +146%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $254 +$244 +96%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $470 +$530 +113%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $610 +$7,020 +1150%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,049 +$51 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $154 +$226 +147%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $2,032 +$1,068 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $82 −$82 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 10 $663 −$663 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? Jun 10 $2,268 −$2,268 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 10 $3,182 −$3,182 -100%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $824 +$1,007 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $2,944 +$2,056 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $896 +$2,504 +280%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3,094 +$2,530 +82%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $1,212 +$2,388 +197%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $1,368 +$1,032 +75%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $6,234 +$3,066 +49%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 29 $1,405 −$1,369 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 29 $503 −$503 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 29 $906 −$890 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 29 $681 −$681 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $3,489 +$461 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $2,569 +$131 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $1,014 +$511 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $1,411 +$2,708 +192%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 27 $1,108 +$517 +47%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 27 $73 +$48 +66%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $1,893 +$2,997 +158%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winne May 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 3 Winner May 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Valorant: FOKUS vs REBORN - Map 2 Winner May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Valorant: Joblife vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group D May 27 $51 −$37 -72%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship G May 27 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winne May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 65¢ $690 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 82¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 82¢ $40 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 82¢ $20 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 82¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $203 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $461 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $208 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $171 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $243 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $49 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $95 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 65¢ $30 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 83¢ $500 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 83¢ $1,250 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $46 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 65¢ $1,201 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 65¢ $1,950 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $489 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $189 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $500 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $1,701 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova SELL Karolina Pliskova 48¢ $1,853 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 47¢ $1,814 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,773.56 · official $3,773.56 (match) · 570 history records