Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5da…b5bf other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 22% −$16
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage127d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $716 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $159 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $492 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $302 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $239 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $403 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $85 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $135 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $298 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 3h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 4h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 6h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 7h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 9h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 10h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $51 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $51 14h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 15h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 16h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 18h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 21h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 23h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 24h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 26h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 27h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 29h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 34h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 42h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 46h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.97 · official $50.97 (match) · 1286 history records