Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C5 0xc5da…209f sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$265 (+4%) realized +$291 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate83%25W / 5L

Drawdown61%max

Avg bet$207per market

Trades / day6.5pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$132

7 days+$192

14 days+$245

30 days+$245

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-4.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+5.1%	-4.9%	82%	54%	-6.6%
≤30d	30	+5.6%	-4.4%	83%	53%	-6.0%
≤90d	30	+5.6%	-4.4%	83%	53%	-6.0%
all	30	+5.6%	-4.4%	83%	53%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.4%	53%	-6.0%
10%	-13.6%	30%	-15.0%
15%	-21.9%	17%	-23.2%
20%	-29.6%	3%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -3% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$110 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.45 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$22

Realized+$291

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses25 / 5

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions1

Markets (closed)30 / 31

History coverage8d

Avg bet$207

Trades / day6.5

Drawdown61%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Over	55¢	26¢	$48	$22	−$26 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda	Jun 15	$36	+$13	+36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$35	+$1	+3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$26	+$9	+33%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5	Jun 14	$261	−$260	-100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$189	+$72	+38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$156	+$33	+21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 13	$139	+$17	+12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 13	$140	−$1	-1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 12	$120	+$20	+17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron	Jun 12	$71	+$27	+38%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$20	+$2	+11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5	Jun 11	$19	+$1	+5%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 11	$51	+$20	+40%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios	Jun 11	$39	−$38	-99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5	Jun 11	$247	−$246	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 198.5	Jun 11	$232	+$14	+6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5	Jun 10	$187	+$45	+24%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5	Jun 10	$191	−$4	-2%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur	Jun 10	$648	+$61	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 10	$548	+$101	+18%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5	Jun 09	$517	+$31	+6%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5	Jun 09	$461	+$56	+12%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet	Jun 09	$430	+$31	+7%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe	Jun 09	$357	+$87	+24%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5	Jun 09	$278	+$37	+13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5	Jun 09	$51	+$28	+56%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5	Jun 09	$254	+$24	+10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8?	Jun 08	$243	+$10	+4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Jun 07	$234	+$9	+4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 07	$191	+$43	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	55¢	$49	1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda	SELL Tommy Paul	100¢	$49	1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda	BUY Tommy Paul	73¢	$36	10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	97¢	$35	19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$35	19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$26	20h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5	BUY Over	88¢	$261	40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$261	41h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$189	42h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	82¢	$156	47h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	100¢	$156	2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Gen.G	89¢	$139	2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	SELL Bilibili Gaming	90¢	$139	2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Bilibili Gaming	90¢	$140	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	85¢	$120	2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5	BUY Under	90¢	$20	3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$20	3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	95¢	$19	3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron	BUY Ben Shelton	72¢	$71	3d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	SELL Taylor Fritz	99¢	$71	3d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	70¢	$51	4d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios	BUY Nick Kyrgios	63¢	$39	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5	BUY Over	85¢	$247	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 198.5	SELL Over	99¢	$247	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 198.5	BUY Over	93¢	$232	4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	80¢	$187	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5	SELL Over	85¢	$187	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5	BUY Over	86¢	$191	4d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur	SELL Alex de Minaur	100¢	$710	4d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur	BUY Alex de Minaur	91¢	$648	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.31 · official $22.31 (match) · 61 history records