Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5d9…b188 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+4%) realized +$109 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -59.2% -63.1% 17% 0% -63.8%
≤30d 6 -59.2% -63.1% 17% 0% -63.8%
≤90d 6 -59.2% -63.1% 17% 0% -63.8%
all 6 -59.2% -63.1% 17% 0% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.1% 0% -63.8%
10% -66.6% 0% -67.3%
15% -69.8% 0% -70.4%
20% -72.8% 0% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Team Refuser 59¢ 100¢ $299 $503 +$204 (+68%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Game Master 22¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $34 −$33 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $331 −$100 -30%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$11 -26%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $99 −$19 -19%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Game Master 10¢ $39 50m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 61¢ $126 57m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 59¢ $177 57m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 30¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 19¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $34 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $429 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 52¢ $101 17h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 53¢ $127 17h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 17¢ $102 17h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 18¢ $29 47h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 22¢ $41 47h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $99 2d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 100¢ $19 3d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 78¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 76¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 54¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 35¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 89¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.98 · official $502.98 (match) · 22 history records