Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5d4…96fb crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$625 (+28%) realized +$624 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$310
14 days+$617
30 days+$617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1
crypto 40% +$1
sports 17% +$618
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +55.0% +40.2% 33% 33% +14.9%
≤30d 5 +64.7% +49.0% 60% 40% +22.6%
≤90d 5 +64.7% +49.0% 60% 40% +22.6%
all 5 +64.7% +49.0% 60% 40% +22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.0% 40% +22.6%
10% +34.7% 40% +10.9%
15% +21.7% 40% +0.2%
20% +9.8% 40% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$1 · ×352.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×529.13 per $1 lost it wins $529.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$624
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $491 $492 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $480 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $188 +$312 +165%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $194 +$306 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $395 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $491 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $480 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $481 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $479 26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $480 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $188 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 38¢ $194 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $395 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.98 · official $491.98 (match) · 13 history records