Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5d2…fbe4 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,552 (-2%) realized −$1,552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$694per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$42
other 37% +$2
sports 15% −$1,494
world 3% −$6
culture 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -5.3% -14.3% 8% 3% -11.1%
all 127 -9.0% -17.7% 11% 7% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 7% -11.1%
10% -25.6% 6% -19.6%
15% -32.8% 6% -27.4%
20% -39.3% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$947) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$18 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized−$1,552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage122d
Avg bet$694
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $542 $542 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,045 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,098 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,879 −$2 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 04 $180 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,061 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,707 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $319 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $667 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $919 −$919 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,466 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,478 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,968 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $2,638 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,895 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,540 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $352 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $320 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $384 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,091 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 07 $356 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $302 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $328 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $326 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $542 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $824 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $825 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $923 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $852 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $854 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $889 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $890 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $853 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $854 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $931 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $932 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $904 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $905 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $632 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $633 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $609 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $610 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $601 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $602 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $663 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $664 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $605 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.03 · official $542.03 (match) · 424 history records