Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc5d2…3bf0 other 65 markets active 5d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+4%) realized +$29 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate90%45W / 5L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2
finance 20% +$11
world 16% +$2
crypto 14% +$5
politics 10% +$5
economics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +13.8% +2.9% 88% 38% -0.3%
≤90d 32 +1.2% -8.5% 88% 19% -7.7%
all 50 +8.7% -1.6% 90% 20% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 20% -6.7%
10% -11.0% 12% -15.7%
15% -19.6% 6% -23.8%
20% -27.5% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses45 / 5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)50 / 65
History coverage124d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+21%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 94¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 83¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $17 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $29 +$6 +22%
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 21 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $23 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 05 $2 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $6 +$4 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 05 $19 +$1 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 28 $17 −$10 -55%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 28 $18 −$15 -85%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $21 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $38 +$4 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 06 $26 +$9 +32%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $23 +$3 +15%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 21 $16 +$1 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 03 $8 +$2 +32%
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 03 $10 $0 +4%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $9 $0 +5%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 18 be less than 2 Feb 27 $0 $0 +22%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 27 $6 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 27 $6 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 27 $6 $0 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 27 $8 $0 +5%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 Feb 17 $8 $0 +0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 17 $1 +$4 +300%
North Korea missile launch by February 14? Feb 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 5d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $11 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $12 12d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $9 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $14 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $14 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 63¢ $8 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $41 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $41 19d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 28d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 86¢ $17 28d
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto SELL Nothing 92¢ $5 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $10 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $11 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $14 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $25 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $12 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.44 · official $81.31 · 211 history records