Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5d0…3602 sports 54 markets active 8h ago coverage 231d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$645 (+7%) realized +$645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,724
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$398
other 31% +$959
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +36.6% +23.6% 50% 50% -10.8%
≤30d 48 +36.6% +23.6% 50% 50% -10.8%
≤90d 48 +36.6% +23.6% 50% 50% -10.8%
all 54 +36.5% +23.5% 54% 50% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 50% -4.4%
10% +11.7% 50% -13.5%
15% +0.9% 43% -21.9%
20% -9.0% 35% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +135% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$122 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage231d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $29 +$71 +244%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$28 +89%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Jens Hauge: 1+ shots Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $462 −$462 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$82 +162%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$105 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$67 +66%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 +$40 +67%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +180%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$30 +145%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $113 +$187 +165%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 +$146 +1288%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$65 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 −$144 -47%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $59 +$141 +240%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $310 +$90 +29%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $209 +$91 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$161 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$347 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 +$108 +152%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $56 +$183 +325%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$323 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$210 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $303 +$120 +40%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1,806 +$425 +24%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $54 +$134 +251%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $27 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $14 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $133 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $168 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $100 14h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $100 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $36 16h
Jens Hauge: 1+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $48 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $60 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $113 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $166 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records