Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc5cd…9aa5
sports · 832 markets active 3h ago
2.0score
+$5,662 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,894 · open −$257
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 42 History 797 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days+$292
14 days+$158
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $497 $489 −$8 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $416 $393 −$23 (-5%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $381 $385 +$4 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $385 $369 −$16 (-4%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $364 $358 −$6 (-2%)
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $316 $330 +$15 (+5%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $299 $309 +$10 (+3%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 96¢ $286 $289 +$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $285 $288 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $283 $286 +$3 (+1%)
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $243 $248 +$5 (+2%)
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $191 $194 +$3 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $189 $190 +$1 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $203 $188 −$15 (-8%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 92¢ $187 $184 −$3 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $148 $155 +$7 (+5%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $139 $142 +$3 (+2%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 65¢ $120 $130 +$10 (+8%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $124 $129 +$5 (+4%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $92 $107 +$15 (+16%)
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 90¢ 92¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $23 −$4 -19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 +$583 +5660%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 07 $107 −$6 -5%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw? Jun 07 $1,504 −$9 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Lennart Karl win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $459 +$16 +3%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +10%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 05 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Spread: British Virgin Islands (-1.5) Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Spread: Luxembourg (-1.5) Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $80 $0 +0%
Spread: Madagascar (-2.5) Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $49 +$48 +97%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $108 $0 +0%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $219 $0 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 03 $449 $0 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 02 $599 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Mastantuono be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Jun 02 $53 +$2 +3%
Will London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $466 +$1 +0%
Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $154 $0 +0%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 02 $95 $0 +0%
Spread: North Macedonia (-2.5) Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 02 $269 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $309 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $354 $0 +0%
Spread: Serbia (-2.5) Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Burgos CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- Jun 01 $153 $0 +0%
Spread: Poland (-1.5) Jun 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $395 +$1 +0%
Will Poland vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 01 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Poland (-2.5) Jun 01 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Iceland (-2.5) May 31 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$1,228
other 41% +$4,551
weather 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$114
world 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $95 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 55¢ $19 5h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 5h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $73 5h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $144 5h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12h
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr BUY No 95¢ $17 12h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 13h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $6 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06- BUY 65¢ $20 17h
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $96 24h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 2d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 2d
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $112 2d
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +38.3% +25.1% 25% 5% -13.1%
≤30d 124 +7.3% -2.9% 82% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 511 -1.0% -10.5% 75% 10% -9.5%
all 797 +1.3% -8.4% 79% 9% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 9% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 8% -16.6%
15% -25.1% 8% -24.7%
20% -32.5% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,432.56 · official $6,451.11 (match) · 3500 history records