Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5cc…eb1b sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$53 (+15%) realized +$47 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$112
other 20% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.0% +25.8% 100% 67% +28.3%
≤30d 3 +39.0% +25.8% 100% 67% +28.3%
≤90d 3 +39.0% +25.8% 100% 67% +28.3%
all 3 +39.0% +25.8% 100% 67% +28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.8% 67% +28.3%
10% +13.7% 67% +16.0%
15% +2.7% 33% +4.8%
20% -7.3% 33% -5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 +$6 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$32 +32%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $98 +$74 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $90 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $100 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $72 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $98 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.96 · official $95.96 (match) · 7 history records