Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C5 0xc5c7…b81d crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%34W / 24L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$61
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.4% +5.3% 90% 40% +2.5%
≤30d 10 +16.4% +5.3% 90% 40% +2.5%
≤90d 58 -7.8% -16.6% 59% 41% -0.5%
all 58 -7.8% -16.6% 59% 41% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 41% -0.5%
10% -24.6% 26% -10.0%
15% -31.9% 19% -18.7%
20% -38.6% 12% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses34 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage43d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $92 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $38 +$36 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$8 -17%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $1 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $1 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 16 $1 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 16 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 16 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 16 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $45 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 39d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 39d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 39d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 39d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 39d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 39d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 39d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 39d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 39d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records