Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C5 0xc5c3…9b45 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+7%) realized +$87 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 40% -31.0%
≤30d 5 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 40% -31.0%
≤90d 5 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 40% -31.0%
all 5 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 40% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 40% -31.0%
10% -34.9% 40% -37.6%
15% -41.2% 40% -43.7%
20% -46.9% 40% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$140 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 22¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $233 +$227 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 11h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $132 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.15 · official $65.15 (match) · 10 history records