Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5c1…0e00 tech 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$707 (+16%) realized +$212 · open +$495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 68% +$523
sports 28% +$18
other 2% +$45
finance 2% +$108
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +21.7% +10.2% 100% 33% +1.0%
≤30d 9 +21.7% +10.2% 100% 33% +1.0%
≤90d 9 +21.7% +10.2% 100% 33% +1.0%
all 9 +21.7% +10.2% 100% 33% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 33% +1.0%
10% -0.4% 22% -8.6%
15% -10.0% 22% -17.5%
20% -18.8% 11% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,870
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$495
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 63¢ 87¢ $1,261 $1,741 +$480 (+38%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 93¢ 96¢ $421 $435 +$13 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 91¢ 97¢ $400 $423 +$23 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 44¢ 32¢ $261 $188 −$72 (-28%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $32 $83 +$51 (+161%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 17 $113 +$9 +8%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $154 +$19 +12%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $89 +$108 +122%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$45 +48%
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S Jun 13 $628 +$8 +1%
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $376 +$4 +1%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 13 $186 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 94¢ $122 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 87¢ $113 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY No 93¢ $422 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 43¢ $23 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 43¢ $17 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 48¢ $32 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $30 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 44¢ $69 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 43¢ $3 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 49¢ $25 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 43¢ $10 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 43¢ $6 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 59¢ $272 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 59¢ $151 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 11¢ $33 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 42¢ $446 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 91¢ $402 2d
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day BUY Up 89¢ $154 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 63¢ $321 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 63¢ $959 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 3d
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION - Game 2 Winner BUY ZETA DIVISION 99¢ $50 4d
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY ZETA DIVISION 97¢ $39 4d
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY ZETA DIVISION 97¢ $4 4d
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY ZETA DIVISION 97¢ $45 4d
Overwatch: SuperBad vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY ZETA DIVISION 99¢ $65 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,869.87 · official $2,869.87 (match) · 48 history records