Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5b3…2a31 other 577 markets active 1h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$216 (-8%) realized −$225 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%129W / 434L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$106
sports 16% −$23
economics 2% −$43
tech 1% −$18
politics 1% −$21
world 1% +$4
culture 1% −$15
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +48.8% +34.6% 24% 24% -16.7%
≤30d 32 +22.1% +10.5% 22% 22% -24.0%
≤90d 34 +15.0% +4.0% 21% 21% -38.9%
all 563 -9.1% -17.7% 23% 23% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 23% -16.8%
10% -25.6% 23% -24.8%
15% -32.8% 23% -32.0%
20% -39.4% 22% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses129 / 434
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)563 / 577
History coverage358d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+165%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 398 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. PSV end in a draw? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Páfos FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 36h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 45h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 45h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 20¢ $3 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.10 · official $67.10 (match) · 772 history records