Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5af…0dff crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$377 (+18%) realized +$377 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%47W / 35L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$138
14 days−$138
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$167
politics 34% $0
other 6% +$7
sports 3% +$5
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.4% -30.7% 41% 41% -43.1%
≤30d 17 -23.4% -30.7% 41% 41% -43.1%
≤90d 20 -24.0% -31.2% 45% 40% -41.3%
all 82 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 46% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 46% -1.7%
10% -9.4% 45% -11.1%
15% -18.1% 43% -19.7%
20% -26.2% 43% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses47 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage551d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$6 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: PCIFIC vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $15 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +92%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$15 +103%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$19 +95%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$14 +93%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$13 +89%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$13 +87%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$14 +90%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$19 +93%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$19 +97%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$18 +89%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$16 +81%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$23 +116%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 14 $15 +$9 +63%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 14 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$10 +97%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$18 +177%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$20 +101%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 14 $17 −$2 -12%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 14 $17 −$2 -12%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $45 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $45 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $46 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $32 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $50 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records