Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5ae…ee2e crypto 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%3W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$11
other 35% −$7
weather 13% −$3
economics 5% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 204 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 1% -9.7%
all 204 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses3 / 201
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage56d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Jun 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? Jun 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $135 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 Jun 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? Jun 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? Jun 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 20 $132 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 6? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 6? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 06 $134 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 06 $135 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $135 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 1? May 31 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? SELL No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $63 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $63 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $63 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $63 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 25h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 SELL No 100¢ $63 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $64 8d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? SELL No 100¢ $64 8d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 8d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? SELL No 99¢ $64 8d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $60 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $60 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $64 8d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $64 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $64 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 426 history records