Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C5 0xc5aa…40dd sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$117 · open +$105

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$879per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$2,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+16.2%
≤30d	1	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+16.2%
≤90d	1	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+16.2%
all	1	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+16.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.2%	100%	+16.2%
10%	+5.0%	100%	+5.0%
15%	-5.1%	0%	-5.1%
20%	-14.4%	0%	-14.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$447 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,015

Realized−$117

Unrealized+$105

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$879

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$1,400	$1,388	−$12 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs	SPARTA	42¢	58¢	$310	$431	+$121 (+39%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$200	$196	−$4 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	Jun 17	$1,576	+$447	+28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se	BUY SPARTA	42¢	$305	25m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se	BUY SPARTA	30¢	$10	30m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$206	1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	SELL Rooster	99¢	$2,018	1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	SELL Rooster	56¢	$6	2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	BUY Rooster	76¢	$1,576	2h
Portugal leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	58¢	$405	3h
Portugal leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,014.87 · official $2,026.01 (match) · 8 history records