Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5aa…ddf9 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$39
politics 19% −$6
sports 5% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -3.4% -12.6% 11% 8% -9.7%
all 107 -3.3% -12.5% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 7% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 7% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage93d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $350 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $303 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $271 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $306 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $253 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $258 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $794 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $539 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $151 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 22d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 22d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $37 22d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 28d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 28d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $58 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $33 30d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $33 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 30d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $260 33d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $260 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.21 · official $189.21 (match) · 305 history records