Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc5aa…35c6
sports · 20 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$295 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$237 · open +$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$110
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage97d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 1 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 98¢ $53 $110 +$58 (+110%)
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Italy 43¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils St. Johns Red Storm $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 25¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners New York Yankees 49¢ $264 $0 −$264 (-100%)
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Canada 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Dominican Rep. 39¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa Hawkeyes 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $39 +$14 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$61 -61%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $20 −$19 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Mar 31 $266 −$264 -99%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $66 +$133 +202%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 29 $120 +$13 +11%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $67 +$52 +78%
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 29 $46 +$21 +45%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $29 +$22 +78%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $59 −$6 -10%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Mar 26 $12 +$14 +113%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 23 $11 +$1 +11%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $29 −$7 -23%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $17 +$5 +28%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 14 $11 +$6 +59%
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $110 +$336 +306%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$298
other 14% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $54 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 4h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $39 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $39 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 7h
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 25¢ $20 34d
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $266 74d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils SELL Connecticut Huskies 100¢ $199 75d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Connecticut Huskies 33¢ $66 75d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $133 75d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $120 75d
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats SELL Arizona Wildcats 100¢ $120 75d
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats BUY Arizona Wildcats 56¢ $67 75d
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $67 75d
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants BUY New York Yankees 68¢ $46 76d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes BUY Iowa Hawkeyes 32¢ $5 76d
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 56¢ $29 77d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils SELL Duke Blue Devils 100¢ $29 77d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Duke Blue Devils 93¢ $27 77d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm $3 77d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm $3 77d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils SELL Duke Blue Devils 93¢ $33 77d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Duke Blue Devils 73¢ $26 77d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 83¢ $26 79d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 39¢ $12 79d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Connecticut Huskies 78¢ $12 81d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 70¢ $11 82d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela BUY Italy 43¢ $10 88d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA BUY Dominican Rep. 39¢ $7 89d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA SELL USA 69¢ $28 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -39.7%
≤30d 2 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -39.7%
≤90d 16 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 56% -20.1%
all 19 +10.8% +0.3% 58% 58% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 58% +13.1%
10% -9.3% 47% +2.3%
15% -18.1% 42% -7.6%
20% -26.1% 32% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.47 · official $104.86 · 39 history records