Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc5a9…3a77 sports 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$792 (-8%) realized −$798 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%199W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$943
7 days−$16
14 days+$3
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$13
other 13% −$406
politics 10% −$187
world 4% −$12
tech 4% −$89
finance 3% −$101
economics 3% −$51
culture 1% −$9
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 +2.8% -6.9% 49% 47% -9.9%
≤30d 407 +5.8% -4.3% 47% 45% -15.1%
≤90d 468 +2.4% -7.4% 42% 40% -18.4%
all 472 +2.5% -7.2% 42% 40% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 40% -18.2%
10% -16.1% 38% -26.1%
15% -24.2% 36% -33.2%
20% -31.6% 33% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized−$798
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses199 / 273
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions54
Markets (closed)472 / 526
History coverage111d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 55¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-9%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Manoj Dhamne Manas 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 66¢ 86¢ $17 $23 +$5 (+30%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 57¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Gonzalo Bueno 71¢ 76¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+8%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Ben Shelton 64¢ 68¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 64¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Vera Zvonareva 61¢ 81¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+34%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 77¢ 84¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 58¢ 57¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 80¢ 88¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Izquierdo (+1.5) Izquierdo 66¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+51%)
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Yunchaokete Bu 49¢ 44¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 54¢ 48¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 47¢ 45¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 60¢ 55¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Shelton vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 57¢ 59¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
McDonald vs. Mochizuki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 22.5 Under 65¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ 70¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Calvin Hemery 62¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Estevez vs. Linde: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Chidekh (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $15 +$7 +47%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $15 +$7 +43%
Chidekh vs. Smith: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $2 +$1 +81%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $13 +$8 +67%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $4 $0 -12%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $11 +$10 +97%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$6 +93%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $9 +$9 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Sawangkaew vs. Urhobo: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Altmaier vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava: Tiago Pereira vs Andrej Martin Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Shelton vs. Giron: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lorenzo Gagliardo vs Amaury Raynel Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 37¢ $2 32m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 37¢ $2 32m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 40¢ $2 1h
McDonald vs. Mochizuki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 43¢ $2 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez BUY Ana Sofia Sanchez 25¢ $1 2h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 44¢ $3 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 53¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 29¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar BUY Ignacio Buse 27¢ $2 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 54¢ $3 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 3h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 48¢ $2 3h
Estevez vs. Linde: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 4h
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Marozsan 63¢ $4 5h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 80¢ $9 5h
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 5h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 60¢ $8 5h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 5h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 6h
Set Handicap: Galarneau (-1.5) vs Maestrelli (+1.5) BUY Maestrelli 59¢ $3 6h
Shelton vs. Kyrgios: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 6h
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 65¢ $6 6h
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 6h
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 6h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $4 6h
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) BUY Atmane 58¢ $3 6h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 45¢ $2 6h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.34 · official $390.74 (match) · 1276 history records