Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc5a7…7f9c crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$294 (-4%) realized −$296 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%65W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$111
14 days−$34
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$628
other 2% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 33% -17.1%
≤30d 128 -18.3% -26.1% 40% 33% -11.7%
≤90d 135 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 33% -15.6%
all 168 -18.3% -26.1% 39% 29% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 29% -16.1%
10% -33.1% 23% -24.1%
15% -39.6% 16% -31.4%
20% -45.5% 14% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses65 / 103
Open positions4
Markets (closed)168 / 172
History coverage139d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 50¢ 66¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 60¢ 55¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 36¢ 44¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 37¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 34¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+63%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 39¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 20¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$4 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $128 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $73 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$4 +285%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -36%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$8 +127%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$2 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$15 +292%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $0 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.79 · official $44.37 (match) · 2029 history records