Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C5 0xc5a6…87d3 tech 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$17
tech 23% +$43
politics 20% −$6
sports 13% −$4
economics 12% −$2
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 19% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -9.4%
10% -16.7% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$603) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage219d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 25 $105 +$5 +5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $998 −$2 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $1,003 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 14 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $109 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 15 $601 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $603 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 11 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $98 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 25 $88 +$3 +3%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $92 +$4 +5%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $86 +$5 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 23 $174 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 19 $84 +$3 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 21 $38 +$24 +63%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $37 $0 +1%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $53 −$12 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $110 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $105 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $103 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $101 22d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 22d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $103 36d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $989 41d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $991 41d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $991 41d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $993 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $995 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $997 41d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $996 41d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $998 41d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $999 41d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,000 41d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $999 41d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $1,003 42d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1,001 42d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1,003 42d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $1,000 42d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $1,002 42d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $109 64d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $598 71d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $599 71d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $600 71d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $600 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records