Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5a6…995c crypto 713 markets active 2h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$444 (+1%) realized +$480 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%293W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days−$3,844
14 days−$3,039
30 days−$1,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$685
other 12% +$160
world 5% −$337
politics 4% −$70
sports 3% +$591
tech 1% −$206
culture 1% −$156
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -51.0% -55.7% 24% 21% -39.2%
≤30d 255 -29.2% -35.9% 34% 32% -20.3%
≤90d 372 -16.7% -24.6% 38% 36% -13.1%
all 703 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 38% -11.6%
10% -27.7% 34% -20.0%
15% -34.6% 29% -27.8%
20% -41.1% 24% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$34 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized+$480
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses293 / 410
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions10
Markets (closed)703 / 713
History coverage407d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 78¢ 81¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $20 −$16 (-46%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$28 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$47 +56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$142 +140%
Adalberto Carrasquilla: 1+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$19 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $190 +$52 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$74 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$31 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $166 +$39 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$6 -27%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$28 -36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$16 -16%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $84 +$237 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $103 +$490 +478%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $84 +$32 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $94 +$74 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $42 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $59 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $105 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $42 29h
Adalberto Carrasquilla: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $21 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.10 · official $756.10 (match) · 2541 history records