Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5a1…42e0 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% $0
politics 14% −$2
sports 5% −$12
economics 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -17.1%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 100 +0.1% -9.5% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 100 +0.1% -9.5% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 8% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage90d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $359 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 17 $352 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $259 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $122 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $466 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $125 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $211 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $319 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $118 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $376 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 9h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 11h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 33h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 35h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $9 39h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $72 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.31 · official $104.31 (match) · 293 history records