Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc59f…f5f8 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$218 (-1%) realized −$219 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$472
7 days−$276
14 days−$276
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.3% -3.8% 67% 67% -25.3%
≤30d 3 +6.3% -3.8% 67% 67% -25.3%
≤90d 7 -12.4% -20.7% 57% 57% -50.1%
all 29 +2.4% -7.4% 62% 62% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 62% -10.6%
10% -16.2% 62% -19.2%
15% -24.3% 62% -27.0%
20% -31.7% 38% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$896) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$404 vs −$685 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage236d
Avg bet$765
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India India 32¢ 32¢ $994 $994 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 28 $765 −$765 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $472 +$293 +62%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $345 +$196 +57%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $647 +$353 +55%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 08 $703 −$703 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic May 08 $1,289 +$511 +40%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Apr 02 $3,216 −$3,216 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 19 $1,575 +$925 +59%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Mar 18 $1,724 −$1,724 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $1,403 +$897 +64%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 15 $896 +$674 +75%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Fnatic (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Feb 15 $630 −$630 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $834 +$511 +61%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 14 $346 +$269 +78%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 08 $396 +$186 +47%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 07 $4,341 +$1,681 +39%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 06 $900 +$350 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 06 $14 +$17 +127%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Dec 06 $280 +$120 +43%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 05 $198 +$183 +92%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $96 +$48 +49%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 05 $444 −$179 -40%
Hawks vs. 76ers Dec 01 $16 −$16 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 08 $93 −$93 -100%
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Nov 08 $132 −$132 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 08 $11 +$9 +75%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Nov 04 $110 +$52 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $439 23m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $24 27m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $2 27m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $4 27m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $5 37m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $39 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $57 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $271 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $76 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $53 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $34 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 26¢ $206 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 26¢ $94 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 26¢ $35 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 26¢ $14 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 26¢ $68 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 25¢ $0 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 26¢ $141 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 25¢ $5 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 25¢ $17 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 26¢ $81 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 25¢ $10 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 25¢ $46 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 25¢ $49 17h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $265 40h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $82 40h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $124 40h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 63¢ $147 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 63¢ $197 2d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Casper Ruud 64¢ $647 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.30 · official $994.30 (match) · 168 history records