Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc597…e662 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$920 (-23%) realized −$881 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%29W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$318
sports 33% −$56
politics 15% −$304
other 11% −$195
world 6% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 19 -2.1% -11.4% 63% 63% -31.9%
all 56 -7.7% -16.5% 52% 48% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 48% -31.0%
10% -24.5% 39% -37.6%
15% -31.8% 32% -43.7%
20% -38.5% 25% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$60 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$881
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage260d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $137 $99 −$39 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 12 $14 +$28 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 12 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 12 $128 −$121 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 12 $102 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 12 $76 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 12 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 12 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 12 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 12 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 12 $77 +$36 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 11 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 11 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 13 $18 +$8 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $130 −$112 -86%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $70 +$4 +5%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Feb 20 $39 +$34 +88%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 19 $24 +$16 +66%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Feb 19 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 16 $156 −$154 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Se Feb 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $78 +$22 +27%
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 14 $48 +$31 +64%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Feb 14 $42 +$7 +16%
Iona Gaels vs. Canisius Golden Griffins Feb 14 $21 +$21 +100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5 Feb 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 03 $343 −$299 -87%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $133 +$90 +68%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 25 $140 −$3 -2%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 24 $128 +$13 +10%
Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5 Jan 22 $71 +$58 +82%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 21 $63 +$11 +18%
Suns vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5 Jan 21 $33 +$31 +96%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 15 $54 −$32 -60%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $98 −$41 -42%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Dec 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Suns vs. Nuggets Dec 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 37.5 Dec 28 $25 −$24 -99%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 28 $12 $0 -0%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Nov 04 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $101 −$1 -1%
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) Nov 04 $24 −$23 -96%
Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5) Oct 26 $63 −$9 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 22d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.76 · official $98.76 (match) · 183 history records