Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc597…c695 sports 485 markets active 2d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-12%) realized −$252 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%217W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$253
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$192
world 5% −$71
other 4% −$11
crypto 1% −$1
politics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 45% -13.5%
≤30d 455 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 42% -22.2%
≤90d 460 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 42% -22.1%
all 460 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 42% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -22.1%
10% -23.5% 34% -29.5%
15% -30.9% 28% -36.3%
20% -37.7% 23% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses217 / 243
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions25
Markets (closed)460 / 485
History coverage51d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch No 93¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Yes 20¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Yes 97¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 88¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 75¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? No 70¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? No 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? No 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%? No 89¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? No 69¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 46¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 49¢ 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $1 +$1 +122%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $3 $0 +14%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -32%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 +$3 +272%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$4 +138%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 67¢ $1 36h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 89¢ $1 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 36h
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 34¢ $1 36h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 44¢ $1 36h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 48¢ $1 36h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 65¢ $1 36h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 43¢ $1 36h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 67¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 0¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 80¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 0¢ $3 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 80¢ $3 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 4d
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1 4d
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch SELL Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $1 4d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 41¢ $3 4d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 89¢ $1 4d
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ $1 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.49 · official $29.48 (match) · 1006 history records