Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc597…7cc3 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$2
other 21% −$18
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 29 -3.8% -12.9% 41% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -11.6%
10% -21.3% 0% -20.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage469d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $121 −$3 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $26 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $18 −$4 -22%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 30 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 22 $18 $0 -0%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 21 $18 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $17 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $13 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $23 42h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $24 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $10 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $42 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.91 · official $35.91 (match) · 76 history records