Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

C5 0xc594…e5c5 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$42 (-6%) realized −$31 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$70

7 days+$70

14 days−$9

30 days−$9

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-27.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+3.3%	-6.5%	62%	62%	+14.2%
≤30d	22	-20.3%	-27.9%	41%	27%	-11.2%
≤90d	22	-20.3%	-27.9%	41%	27%	-11.2%
all	22	-20.3%	-27.9%	41%	27%	-11.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.9%	27%	-11.2%
10%	-34.8%	18%	-19.7%
15%	-41.1%	18%	-27.4%
20%	-46.8%	14%	-34.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -24% → late -17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$168

Realized−$31

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage14d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	35¢	33¢	$179	$168	−$11 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 24	$104	+$47	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 24	$25	+$4	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 24	$25	+$4	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$25	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$31	+$46	+152%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$28	−$27	-96%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$2	$0	-12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-95%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$2	$0	+6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 15	$18	+$1	+3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Jun 14	$17	+$2	+9%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe	Jun 12	$38	−$22	-57%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe	Jun 12	$38	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 12	$31	−$4	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 12	$26	−$3	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 12	$11	−$10	-94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$17	−$16	-97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$8	+$9	+106%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	35¢	$184	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	SELL Down	71¢	$151	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	10h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	39¢	$31	11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$2	8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	8d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	63¢	$2	8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$19	8d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	9¢	$19	8d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$18	9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	SELL No	26¢	$18	9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY No	22¢	$17	11d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe	SELL No	16¢	$16	11d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe	BUY No	35¢	$38	11d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe	SELL No	69¢	$38	11d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe	BUY No	68¢	$38	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$5	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	SELL Up	51¢	$27	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$26	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	SELL Up	33¢	$23	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.92 · official $167.92 (match) · 45 history records