Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc593…ea8c sports 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$268 (-5%) realized −$348 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$442
other 9% +$90
crypto 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 49% -16.6%
≤30d 72 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 49% -16.6%
≤90d 72 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 49% -16.6%
all 72 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 49% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 49% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 43% -24.5%
15% -27.4% 42% -31.8%
20% -34.5% 35% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$56 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized−$348
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions12
Markets (closed)72 / 84
History coverage7d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $233 $281 +$48 (+21%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ 100¢ $50 $123 +$73 (+145%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 38¢ $109 $65 −$43 (-40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ 44¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 64¢ 66¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+59%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $80 +$75 +93%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $80 +$76 +94%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $79 −$78 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$30 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$118 +108%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +61%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $48 −$48 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $181 −$73 -40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $148 −$131 -88%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $128 −$118 -92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $77 +$47 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $121 +$66 +55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$118 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $131 −$130 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$84 +140%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $85 +$75 +89%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $121 +$116 +95%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$13 +140%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$12 +117%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$5 +70%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$24 +189%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $124 +$24 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $145 −$52 -36%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $85 +$138 +163%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$52 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$11 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $95 +$40 +42%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $108 −$107 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$3 +16%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $107 +$49 +46%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$16 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $36 +$17 +49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $118 −$26 -22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $108 +$107 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $10 1m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $18 1m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $2 1m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $11 2m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $29 57m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $2 57m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $4 58m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $2 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $40 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 59¢ $40 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $4 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $15 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $2 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $6 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 54¢ $39 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $4 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $9 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 58¢ $6 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.95 · official $612.95 (match) · 413 history records