Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc58d…c99c other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,776 (-20%) realized −$3,658 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,430per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$2,708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$625
7 days−$840
14 days−$3,504
30 days−$3,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$3,363
sports 5% −$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -26.7% -33.7% 60% 40% -19.2%
≤30d 12 -15.7% -23.7% 58% 33% -29.7%
≤90d 12 -15.7% -23.7% 58% 33% -29.7%
all 12 -15.7% -23.7% 58% 33% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 33% -29.7%
10% -31.0% 17% -36.4%
15% -37.7% 8% -42.5%
20% -43.8% 8% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$920 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2,708
Realized−$3,658
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,430
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $2,826 $2,708 −$118 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,427 +$413 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,216 +$213 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,642 −$1,261 -77%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $365 −$346 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,205 +$142 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $212 +$67 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $602 −$393 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $570 +$34 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $362 +$207 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $336 +$21 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,872 −$2,530 -88%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,942 −$70 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,839 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,840 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,427 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,216 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $18 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $365 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $362 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,344 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,346 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,205 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $280 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $61 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $84 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $210 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $602 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $570 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $362 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $356 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $336 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $38 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $294 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,708.18 · official $2,708.18 (match) · 40 history records