Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc58d…8588 crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$480 (-3%) realized −$482 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate63%146W / 87L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day127.6pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$1,130
14 days−$746
30 days−$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$1,001
crypto 26% +$155
economics 3% −$1
other 1% +$103
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +16.0% +4.9% 60% 31% -20.6%
≤30d 233 +7.7% -2.6% 63% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 233 +7.7% -2.6% 63% 36% -13.1%
all 233 +7.7% -2.6% 63% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 36% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 29% -21.4%
15% -20.4% 27% -29.0%
20% -28.2% 23% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$63 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$482
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses146 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions6
Markets (closed)233 / 239
History coverage12d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day127.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 48¢ 59¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +426%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +146%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 +$73 +145%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$23 +84%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $11 −$5 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$5 +400%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$8 -82%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $287 −$287 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$5 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $502 −$502 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$153 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $187 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $52 +$71 +137%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $320 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $271 −$271 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$23 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $340 −$201 -59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$12 +567%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $113 +$76 +67%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $80 +$54 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $520 −$131 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $487 −$285 -58%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $191 +$194 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $297 −$199 -67%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $89 +$100 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 48¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $4 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $7 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 13h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $2 14h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 41h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $15 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $1 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $1 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $1 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $21 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $8 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $8 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.51 · official $68.51 (match) · 1708 history records