Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc58c…4fc0 sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+2%) realized +$131 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%65W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$123
14 days+$19
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$62
other 27% +$158
crypto 4% −$15
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 51% -1.0%
≤30d 116 +0.3% -9.2% 52% 47% -5.1%
≤90d 131 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 46% -5.7%
all 131 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 46% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 46% -5.7%
10% -20.8% 44% -14.7%
15% -28.5% 37% -22.9%
20% -35.5% 35% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses65 / 66
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions7
Markets (closed)131 / 138
History coverage38d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $81 +$57 +70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $41 −$3 -7%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$4 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$28 +93%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $11 +$9 +75%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $12 +$7 +60%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $17 +$12 +72%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $89 +$114 +128%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $200 +$1 +1%
Fery vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $47 −$30 -65%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $16 −$1 -4%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $41 +$88 +216%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $12 +$11 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$32 +21%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $13 +$9 +67%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $277 +$135 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 +$9 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $6 +$8 +134%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$14 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 +$12 +128%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $151 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $38 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 3d
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Osaka 57¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $11 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $0 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $17 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $12 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $38 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.60 · official $412.34 (match) · 288 history records