Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc58c…0cad
weather · 160 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$6 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses87 / 9
Open positions64
Markets (closed)96 / 160
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day145.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 64 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 79¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? No 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? No 86¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? No 84¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? No 87¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? No 86¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? No 87¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 89¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? No 89¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 87¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 87¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 88¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? No 88¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? No 83¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? No 91¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +6.7% -3.5% 91% 61% -2.7%
≤30d 96 +6.7% -3.5% 91% 61% -2.7%
≤90d 96 +6.7% -3.5% 91% 61% -2.7%
all 96 +6.7% -3.5% 91% 61% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover145.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 61% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 18% -12.0%
15% -21.1% 2% -20.5%
20% -28.9% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.53 · official $60.46 (match) · 336 history records